泥石流危险性评价问题的探讨

泥石流危险性评价是一种有效的防灾减灾手段,开展泥石流危险性评价有着重要的意义。分析了泥石流信息具有多元、多源的大数据特性,以及泥石流系统的时空变异性、不确定性、随机性和非线性等特性。总结了泥石流评价指标选取、指标权重确定、评价方法等内容,指出了目前泥石流评价中存在的问题;并探讨了相关的解决方法。指出了基于物联网和大数据传输,采用多元信息融合技术,运用复杂性科学系统理论与人工智能方法,对泥石流的时间、空间和规模进行高精度、高时效的评价和预报是未来的趋势。

Discussion on the Risk Assessment of Debris Flow

The risk assessment of debris flow is an effective method for disaster prevention and reduction. It is of great significance to carry out risk assessment of debris flow. This paper analyzes the characteristics of large-scale and multi-sourced big data of debris flow information, and the characteristics of space-time variability, uncertainty, randomness, and nonlinearity of debris flow systems. The selection of debris flow evaluation indexes, index weight determination and evaluation methods were analyzed, and the problems existing in the current debris flow evaluation were pointed out, and related solutions were discussed. It is pointed out that based on the Internet of Things and big data transmission, adopting multi-information fusion technology, using complex science system theory and artificial intelligence methods, it is the future trend to evaluate and forecast the debris flow"s time, space and scale with high precision and high timeliness.