文章编号： 中图分类号：X949 文献标志码：A

为解决计划轮档小时设定的问题,提出了基于空中飞行时间可靠性的计划轮档小时计算方法。首先给出计划轮档小时的定义和数据分析；然后将行程时间可靠性的概念引入到空中飞行时间中,提出空中飞行时间可靠性和轮档小时可靠性的概念；最后选择北京-上海虹桥同一城市对的空中飞行时间历史数据进行分析,以3分钟为时间间隔的分组高斯拟合好于5分钟时间间隔分组,其分组的概率密度函数服从高斯分布。结果表明：以65%-75%的轮档小时可靠性为目标,采用民航正常性管理中的标准地面滑出时间30分钟,根据经验值确定滑入时间4分钟,则该城市对的计划轮档小时可以设定为140-141分钟；同时,该方法可以为民航国内航班标准航段运行时间表中每个航段运行时间提供数据支持。

Airborne Hour Reliability Applicationin Calculating Scheduled Block Time

In order to setting scheduled block time(SBT), a calculating method based on airborne hours is introduced. First, the concept of SBT is proposed and the features of SBT data are analyzed. Then, the conception of travel time reliability is expanded to airborne hour, meanwhile, the definitions of airborne hour reliability and block time reliability are given. At last, the flight data from Beijing to Shanghai(Hongqiao airport) are chosen to calculate and analyze. The effect of 3 min interval is better than 5 min, and the density probability function follows Gaussian distribution. The simulation results illustrate in the goal of 65%-75% block time reliability, choosing 30min as taxing-out time(from civil aviation normality management) and 4min(from empirical value) as taxing-in time, the SBT between Beijing and Shanghai Hongqiao could be set in 140-141min. Meanwhile, the method of setting SBT could provide data support for standard SBT.