中国地区凝结尾数值模拟分析

为了解中国地区凝结尾发生的时空分布特征和环境特征,按照Schmidt–Appleman标准,建立凝结尾发生模型,并基于全国大气探空数据,统计分析了2001年至2017年中国地区凝结尾特征。结果表明,近年来凝结尾的发生数量呈增长趋势,其与年平均湿度呈正相关,相关系数达0.96；大兴安岭地区、陕北地区、青海东南和川北地区以及天山地区是中国地区凝结尾高发地区,华南地区是凝结尾发生数量最少的地区；凝结尾发生数量季节差异明显,春夏多,秋冬少；凝结尾发生时环境的平均温度为-35.2℃,平均湿度为50.4%。高度7 000 m至12 000 m范围内凝结尾发生数量占总次数的79.5%；凝结尾在不同高度层发生的概率不同,调整航空器的飞行高度层,可使凝结尾发生数量平均减少24.9%。

A Numerical Simulation Analysis of Contrails in China

To reveal the distribution characteristics and environmental characteristics of aircraft contrails in China, contrails model was established according to the Schmidt-Appleman standard. The characteristics were analyzed using atmospheric sounding data from 2001 to 2017 in China. The result shows that the number of contrails was increased in recent years, which is positively correlated with the average humidity of the year, and the correlation coefficient is as high as 0.96. The Greater Khingan Mountains area, northern part of Shaanxi Province, southeast of Qinghai and north Sichuan areas, and Tianshan region are high frequency areas in China. On the contrary, the occurrence number of contrails in the southern China is the smallest. The occurrence number varied significantly in seasons, and it is more frequent in spring and summer than in autumn and winter. The height range of 7 000 m to 12 000 m is accounts for 79.5% of the total number. In addition, the probability occurring contrails at different levels is different, and adjusting flight level of aircraft, which can reduce the number of contrails in China by 24.9 %.