基于ARIMA模型的居民区电动汽车负载特性分析

随着电动汽车规模的日益扩大和居民区充电设施的逐渐完善，大量电动汽车的充电行为将给居民区电网负荷带来较大影响。本文在电动汽车充电特性研究的基础上，提出了一种基于自回归求和滑动平均(ARIMA)模型的面向居民区的电动汽车负载特性分析方法，通过构建多辆电动汽车的总耗电模型，较好地预测了电动汽车总体充电需求，进而实现对居民区变压器容量的合理配置。最后选取若干具有代表性的小区，测试分析了电动汽车接入前后的台区负载变化情况，验证了所提方法的有效性。

Analysis on Load Characteristics of Electric Vehicles in Residential Areas Based on ARIMA Model

With a rapid development of electric vehicles and a gradual improvement of charging facilities in the residential areas, the load of whole power grid may be seriously affected by the large number of electric vehicles charging behaviors. Therefore, this paper proposes a load demand analyzing method based on auto regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. Firstly, the total power consumption model of multiple electric vehicles is established. Then, a predict electric vehicle charging demand is derived, so as to achieve rational allocation of transformer capacity. Finally, several representative residential areas are selected to measure the load changes before and after the access of electric vehicles. Simulation results verify the effectiveness of the proposed method.