基于脉冲响应的区域经济政策实施效果评价

本文以上海市为实证对象,通过构建政策变量对经济效果变量的脉冲响应函数模型,揭示了国家重大区域规划政策对上海市经济发展的影响.通过构建政策变量对经济效果变量的脉冲响应函数模型,揭示了同一政策在不同宏观经济背景下的作用效果,弥补了现有研究忽略宏观背景对政策效果影响的不足.通过分解脉冲响应函数模型的残差,刻画政策变量的残差变化一个单位标准差后,政策变量与效果变量的共同波动对效果变量的影响.实证表明:在经济紧缩期,扩大中央固定资产投资对上海后10年的总体影响显著好于经济繁荣期.因此,择机选择政策变量的投入力度对区域经济发展尤为重要.

The evaluation of regional economic policy implementation effect based on impulse response

In this paper, it builds an impulse response function model, regarding Shanghai city as the empirical object, indicating how the regional planning policy influences Shanghai economy development. Based on the impulse response function, it indicates different outcomes from the same policy under different macroeconomic backgrounds, covering the shortage of existing researches which ignores the fact of background. As well this paper describes how the impact from both policy and economic variable on the economic variable when the policy variable residual changes a unit standard deviation, through decomposition of model residuals. The study shows that when the economy is recession, the expanding gross fixed asset formation has a better outcome than the boom period in Shanghai for ten years in the future. Hence, it is important to choose a suitable time point to decide the intensity of policy.