非常规突发事件公共恐慌的政府信息公布策略研究:基于Multi-Agent模型

本文基于Agent模型构建了非常规突发事件公共恐慌演化仿真模型,以探讨不同的政府信息发布策略对公共恐慌的影响.特别地,该模型将信息分为真实有利信息、真实危机信息、不实有利信息、不实危机信息等四种信息类型,并以松花江水污染事件为研究案例,进行实证研究.结果表明,当非常规突发事件引发公共恐慌时,政府应该慎重发表言论,注重自身的公众形象,并在应急政策准备充分情况下,尽快公布事件真相消除不实危机信息所带来的不良影响,以有效避免与消除公共恐慌危机.

Effectiveness analysis of different information publication policies on controlling public panic from unconventional emergencies: Based on multi-agent model

This paper tends to propose a multi-agent based model to discover effective information publication policy to control public panic caused by unconventional emergencies. In particular, information in this model is classified into four types: real favorable information, real crisis information, favorable rumor and crisis rumor, in order to simulate different policies with different information types and publication times. Taking the water pollution accident of the Songhua River as an example, the empirical results demonstrate that government should pay attention to public image and publish information seriously, release the real information, and guild public opinion actively as soon as responding measures are determined, in order to avoid public panic crisis.