基于熵权-正态云模型的水资源可持续性评价

通过分析影响城市水资源可持续发展的要素, 构建水资源可持续性评价指标, 并利用云模型可同时兼顾模糊性与随机性的特征, 将其引入水资源可持续性评价中, 建立了基于熵权-正态云模型的水资源可持续性评价模型; 以地处南方丰水区且经济发达的广东省珠江三角洲经济区(简称“珠三角”)为例, 分析并量化珠三角9个城市的水资源可持续性水平及其空间分异性.结果表明:珠三角的水资源可持续状况整体较好, 呈现东部城市的水资源可持续性高于西部城市、近海域城市的水资源可持续性高于远海域城市的空间分布格局; 造成珠三角城市水资源可持续性的空间差异的最主要原因为水资源禀赋, 其次为经济与社会发展水平.

The Entropy Weights-Based Approach to and the Normal Cloud Model for Water Resources Assessment

The factors affecting the sustainable development of urban water resources are analyzed, the index of water resources sustainability evaluation is constructed and the Normal Cloud Model based on entropy weight is established to evaluate the sustainability of water resources. The spatial differences of water resources sustainability in 9 cities in the Guangdong Pearl River Delta Economic Zone, referred to as Pearl River Delta, which is water-rich and economically developed, were analyzed and quantified. The result shows that the sustainability of water resources in the Pearl River Delta is fair on the whole. Specifically, the water resource sustainability of cities in the east is better than that of the cities in the west. And the water resources sustainability of near-sea cities is higher than that of ci-ties far from the sea. The spatial difference of water resources sustainability is mainly due to the water resources endowments in the Pearl River Delta. Besides, the economic and social development also has a certain impact on the sustainability of urban water resources.