中国房地产财富效应的协整分析和误差修正模型

为了揭示中国房地产价格与居民消费的关系,在论述财富效应理论对中国适用性的基础上,引用了持久收入假说与生命周期理论下的财富效应模型,并以该模型为基础构建了协整分析与误差修正模型.同时,选取上海市数据为样本进行实证的分析,验证中国房地产财富效应的存在性.此外,进一步选取北京、天津、深圳、重庆市数据为样本进行扩展的实证研究,并进行比较.研究表明中国房地产财富效应在一定范围内存在,长期的房地产财富效应基本是正向的,而短期的房地产财富效应的发挥形式存在一定的差异.

Cointegration Analysis and Error Correction Model of Real Estate Wealth Effect in China

Based on applicability of wealth effect theory in China,permanent income hypothesis and life cycle hypothesis is introduced to analyze wealth effect,which cointegration analysis and error correction model is constructed corresponding to.Furthermore,real estate wealth effect is demonstrated and contrasted through experimental analysis in Shanghai,Beijing,Tianjing,Shenzhen and Chongqing.It is showed that real estate wealth effect is existed in some areas.Long-term real estate wealth effect is positive,whereas the short-term one is different from each other.