昌宁县人口发展预测分析

人口问题是人类面临的难题本义应用人口控制论及人口发展方程，成功地建立了区域人口模型。通过计算机对昌宁县的人口发展进行５８年预测．１９９０年人口预测值与全国第四次人口普查数相比，绝对误差仅２人，误差率不到百万分之七．科学地预测未来人口状况，能为区域经济和社会发展计划，人口规划和人口政策提供强有力的依据．

Projection and Analysis of the Population Growth in Changnin County

Over population is a difficult problem facing mankind. The present papersuccessfully establishes a local population pattern by applying the population control theo-ry and population growth equation. With the help of computer, an estimation of thefiftey-eight-year population growth in Changnin County has been carried out. By com-paring the figure obtained from the fourth national census of the county with the projectedpopulation in 1990, an absolute error is found to be only two persons, and the rate of er-ror is less than seven perucent. A scientific projection of the future population can provideastrong basis for the planning of the local economic and social development, the popula-tion program and the policy on population.