基于需求函数模型的公路网规模预测

针对公路网规划中路网总量的确定问题，系统分析了公路网密度与人口密度、人均GDP的关系，得出了人口增长和经济发展对公路建设速度、规模需求的规律。在经济发展缓慢时期，对公路的运输需求相对较小；随着经济的快速发展，对公路运输的需求越来越大；公路建设超过一定规模时，人口增长和经济发展对公路运输的需求降低，公路建设速度开始减缓。基于Cobb-Douglas生产函数模型，建立了人口、经济增长对公路的需求函数模型。通过1991～2003年统计资料，分析确定了模型参数的合理构成范围，建立了不同时段、不同地区的公路网预测模型。

Reasonable Highway Network Scale Prediction Based on Demand Function

Aimed at the highway network scale in traffic planning,this paper analyzes the relationship of highway net density with population density and per capital GDP.The regular pattern of the rate and scale requirement of highway with the growth of population and economic is deduced. The relationship has those features: the demand of the highway transportation is less in the stage of low rate of economic growth;and with the high speed development of economic,the demand is bigger;when the highway network reach some scale,the demand is depressed.This paper sets up a model of highway network demand function on the basis of Cobb-Douglas production function,and establishes the reasonable scale of model's parameters based on the data of 1991~2003 statistic,establishes the predication models of highway network for various time and different area.6 tabs,8 refs.