生猪供应链模式的系统动力学仿真及对策分析

通过对我国38个县市区生猪市场、饲料市场及猪肉市场的实地调研和跟踪调查,构建了我国生猪供应链系统的因果关系图、反馈环、子系统和系统动力学流图。在此基础上,建立了我国生猪供应链系统动力学模型,并进行了仿真分析。结果表明:生猪供应链系统结构中存在两个反馈环,形成了两个子系统,即增长子系统和上限子系统,生猪供应链系统是一个增长上限系统。在"公司+农户"供应链模式下,养殖户的总成本低于独立散养模式下的总成本,生猪产品质量高于养殖户独立散养模式下的生猪质量,养殖户的利润高于独立散养模式下的利润,通过"公司+农户"供应链模式可以保障猪肉食品安全和提高农户收入。

System Dynamic Simulation for Pig Supply Chain in China

Through investigation and follow-up survey in our country 38 counties urban district of hog market, feed market and pork market, the paper builds Chinese pig supply Chinese of cause and effect di- agrams,feedback loops, subsystem and system dynamics flow diagram. Based on this foundation, our country live pig supply chain system dynamics model is built, and carried out simulation analysis. The re- sults show that：two feedback loops are in the pig supply chain system structure and formed two subsys- tems, namely the growth system and upper subsystem, and pig supply chain system is a top-line growth system. Under the ＂company and farmer＂ mode of supply chain, the total cost is lower than the independ- ent farmers under free-range pig total cost, but the product quality and gained profit is higher than the lat- ter. The ＂company and farmer＂ mode of supply chain can guarantee pork food safety and increase farmer income.