基于模糊综合评价法的北极挂靠港建模选择研究

随着全球气温变暖，北极冰层不断融化，北极东北航线全面通航的可能性日益增加.随着北极东北航线集装箱货运量的不断增加，越来越多的船公司会选择航行北极东北航线，而北极东北航线的挂靠港选择将成为船公司必须要考虑的问题.以上海港途经北极东北航线到达鹿特丹港为研究对象，先运用模糊评价法缩小港口选择范围，对北极东北航线的沿线港口做定性分析.然后在此基础之上做定量分析，以船公司利润最大为目标，建立北极东北航线的最优挂靠港选择整数规划数学模型.最后采用Lingo进行求解，得出船公司北极东北航线的最优挂靠港方案.结果表明，采用此种定性和定量相结合的方法可以更好地解决船公司选择最优挂靠港问题，同时对北极航线港口投资建设具有重要意义.

Study on the selecting model for Arctic ports of call basing on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method

As global warming and the Arctic ice melting， the navigation possibility of Arctic Northeast Sea Route (NSR) increases gradually. With the amount of the NSR container transportation increasing， more and more shipping companies will sail the NSR， and ports of call along the NSR are required to be considered. The NSR from Shanghai Port to Rotterdam Port was taken as study object. Firstly， fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method (FCE) was used to narrow the scope of choice， and the main ports along NSR was analyzed qualitatively. And then the integer programming model was established for selecting the most suitable NSR ports of call from Shanghai Port to Rotterdam Port based on FCE， targeting on the maximized profit of shipping companies. Finally， the scheme of the most suitable NSR ports of call from Shanghai Port to Rotterdam Port was calculated by Lingo. The results show that the qualitative and quantitative combining method is able to solve the problem better and provide reference for decision on the investment and construction of NSR ports by shipping companies.