北极LNG运输航线的交通分配问题研究

随着陆上油气储量的日渐衰减和北冰洋海冰的不断消融，越来越多的国家着手对北极地区的资源进行开发.以北极地区的LNG运输为研究对象，考虑过度分配造成的海运运输航线的拥堵，利用BRP函数产生拥堵成本，以运输成本，拥堵成本及风险成本之和最小为目标，建立LNG运输航线的交通分配模型.从全部需求量同时分配的角度，以中国政府为决策主体，由苏伊士运河航线、好望角航线以及北极东北航线构成的海运网络，利用Frank-Wolfe算法进行求解，并用CPLEX软件验证其有效性.结果表明：未来将分担北极资源运出运量36%左右.在油价的下调和苏伊士运河高额通行费用的影响下，好望角航线的优势也开始显现，将分担全部运量的28%左右.

Research on the traffic assignment of the Arctic LNG transport routes

With the continuous melting of Arctic sea ice and the gradual decay of onshore oil and gas reserves， more and more countries have embarked on the development of Arctic resources. Taking the LNG transport in the Arctic as the research object and considering the traffic congestion caused by excessive allocation of shipping channels along with congestion cost generated by BRP function， the traffic assignment model of LNG transportation route was established with the goal of minimum cost on congestion， traffic assignment and cost of risking. In the respect of the simultaneous allocation of total demand， the Frank-Wolfe algorithm is used to calculate the volume distribution of the shipping channel with Chinese government as main decision subject based on the shipping network composed of the Suez Canal， Cape of Good Hope and Northeast Arctic shipping line. Finally， a case study is conducted. The results show that the Arctic Northeast route plays an important role in the transport of resources in the Arctic， and will share about 36% of the total traffic in the future. In the context of lower oil prices and the high cost of the Suez Canal， the advantages of the Cape of Good Hope route began to show， which will share the total volume of about 28%.