| 残差修正的GM(1,1)模型预测路基沉降量 |
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| 引用本文： | 郭亚宇.残差修正的GM(1,1)模型预测路基沉降量[J].陕西理工学院学报(自然科学版),2014(6):35-39. |
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| 作者姓名： | 郭亚宇 |
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| 作者单位： | [1]陕西铁路工程职业技术学院轨道工程系,陕西渭南714000; [2]兰州交通大学土木工程学院,甘肃兰州730070 |
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| 基金项目： | 陕西省教育厅科学研究计划项目（09JK384） |
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| 摘 要： | 用普通GM(1,1)模型进行路基沉降预测时,有时会出现较大偏差,甚至完全失效。为此提出了改进措施,引入残差修正的GM(1,1)预测模型,用于高速铁路某试验段路基的沉降预测。工程实例表明,残差修正的GM(1,1)模型的预测精度明显高于普通GM(1,1)模型。在路基沉降预测中有明显的优势,值得在工程中推广应用。
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| 关 键 词： | 路基 GM(1 1)模型 沉降预测 残差修正 预测精度 |
Application of GM（1,1）model in the sinkage prediction of roadbed based on residual modification |
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| GUO Ya-yu.Application of GM（1,1）model in the sinkage prediction of roadbed based on residual modification[J].Journal of Shananxi University of Technology:Natural Science Edition,2014(6):35-39. |
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| Authors: | GUO Ya-yu |
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| Institution: | GUO Ya-yu(1. Department of Rail Engineering, Shaanxi Railway Institute, Weinan 714000, China ; 2. School of Civil Engineering, Lanzhou Jiaotong University, Lanzhou 730070, China) |
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| Abstract: | The general GM（1,1）model may cause obvious deviation and even complete failure in roadbed sinkage prediction. The paper puts forward some improvement measures by Introducing residual modi-fied GM（1,1）prediction model to predict the sinkage of a section of a given high-speed rail. Results from the project show that the prediction accuracy of the improved GM（1,1）model is higher than the general GM（1, 1）model,and it has obvious advantages in roadbed sinkage prediction and is worth being popularized and ap-plied in engineering. |
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| Keywords: | roadbed GM（1 1）model sinkage prediction residual modification accuracy prediction |
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