大型工程建设项目风险分析方法及应用

结合大型工程建设项目风险特点,对大型工程项目动态风险分析方法进行了系统研究。分析和评价了目前风险分析存在的问题与不足,提出了一种根据时间序列构造风险分析影响图模型的方法。并且对影响图中的超价值结点概念与价值函数可分解性进行了讨论,针对超价值结点特性,将影响图与动态经济评价相对合,提出了大型工程项目动态风险分析方法。最后,以某大型水利工程为案例进行了应用研究,证明了方法的有效性.

The Method and Application of Risk Analysis for Large Engineering Project

In this paper, based on the characteristics of large engineering project,the risk analysis method for large engineering projects is systematically studied, the shortcomings of existing risk analysis methodology are analysed. A new method called time series support is originally presented to structure risk influence diagrams.A dynamic criterion is supposed based on the separable nature of value function.With this criterion, we combine influence diagrams with dynamic economic assessment. Thus the dynamic risks for large engineering projects are evaluated.At the endof the paper, the risk of a certain large-sized water conservancy project is analysed.