北京水资源短缺风险预测

应用灰色—指数平滑变权组合预测的方法,对2010年北京市缺水总量及水资源总量进行预测,并且计算了单项预测及组合预测的精度,通过比较得出组合预测的方法精确度较高,最后用组合预测的方法预测出2010年北京市缺水总量及水资源总量;对于2001年—2010年采用模糊概率的方法计算出各年缺水风险度,再用快速聚类分析的方法确定北京市2010年缺水等级为中级,必须采取措施降低风险。

The prediction to Beijing water shortage risk

In this paper,the authors apply the variable combination of grey system and index smoothing prediction model to predict 2010 Beijing water shortage amount and water resource amount,and calculate the accuracy of single prediction and combination prediction.Through the comparison,theresults show the combination prediction is with ahigher accuracy.At last,by the model of combination prediction we get the prediction of the amounts to 2010 Beijing water shortage,and water resources.We first make the prediction of water shortage risk of each year in Beijing from 2001 to 2010 by fuzzy probability,then by fast clustering analysis method identify the water shortage level in Beijing in 2010 to be mediation.So it is necessary to take action to discriminate the risk.