菏泽地区人口增长与粮食生产的中环分析

人类在自身生产过程中,粮食是最基本的需求,而粮食的生产与农业自然资源特别是土地资源的开发利用紧密相联,因而,人口—粮食—土地是一个复合生态经济系统。本文利用人—地关系的中环公式和灰色系统理论,对菏泽地区的人口增长和粮食生产进行了分析和探讨。结果表明,到下世纪初,菏泽地区的粮食生产也只能保持平衡状态,不能实现向盈余的根本转变。

Central Link Analysis of the Population Growth and Food Production of Heze District

During the process of human being production, the consumption of food is the fundamental need, while the food production is closely related to the utilization of the agricultural natural resources, such as land resource in particular. So, the population-food-land is a compound cco-economic system. This paper, by using the central link formula and gray system theory, analyses and probes into the population growth and food production of Heze District. The results indicate that, at the beginning of the next century, the food production of Heze District can not realize the radical transition to surplus and can only keep the equilibrium state.