济南市工业"三废"排放的环境库兹涅茨曲线特征分析

选取济南市1994-2003年经济与环境数据,建立单位GDP污染排放量模型和人均GDP污染排放量模型,分析工业“三废”与人均GDP增长的环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKC)。从模型模拟结果看,单位GDP污染排放量总体呈现下降趋势,表明济南市产业结构在十几年的演变过程中发生了明显的变化。发现济南市经济发展与环境污染水平的关系总体上符合EKC特征;济南市经济目前仍处于工业化进程的中期阶段,环境污染物排放量EKC的转折点尚未达到。

Analysis of the Environmental Kuznets Curve Characteristics of Industrial Waste in Jinan City

With the 1994-2003 economic and environmental data in Jinan City as basis,the model of the industrial waste discharge per employment GDP and the industrial waste discharge per capita GDP have been established,and the relationship between typical environmental indexes and the increase of per capita GDP is analyzed.The results show that the industrial waste discharge per employment GDP is generally a downward trend,which indicates that the scale-up of industry,the technological progress and readjustment of industrial structure have yielded significant environmental benefit.Meanwhile on the whole the relationship between economic development and environmental pollution conforms to the characteristics of EKC.Jinan City is still at the stage of industrial development,and the EKC turning point of the environmental waste discharge has not yet been reached.Thus,some methods should be put forward to solve these problems.