目标导向的IT项目开发风险影响图模型

IT项目的复杂社会一技术系统本质决定了其建设过程的高风险特征，于是也使项目风险管理具有更高的经济杠杆作用．项目风险管理的核心在于风险辨识，风险辨识的关键离不开风险结构的恰当描述和规范的建模步骤．论文从3个方面归纳了典型IT项目风险辨识思想的突出属性，提出了理想的风险辨识框架，比较并选定了描述该框架的影响图模型，最后提出了规范的风险体系构建步骤和方法，并通过一个例子说明其在风险辨识和评估中的作用。

Goal-oriented modeling of IT project risk structure using influence diagram

Risk management in IT project plays a great leverage role because of the high_risk characteristic of IT project determined by its nature as a complex social_tech system. The central of risk management is risk identification, which needs describing its framework appropriately and the procedure to build framework formally. In this paper, based on three attributes of risk identification theory in IT project, we firstly point out what is the perfect framework for risk identification, and then choose influence diagram as a tool to represent the framework after comparing some common tools used in describing complex system. Finally we design a formal procedure and method to build the influence diagram, and illustrate its operation by a simple example.