轨道交通网络平台的网络外部性对客流的影响研究

轨道交通网络能吸引路网上的客流，因此可以缓解交通拥堵和环境污染等城市问题。采用效用函数构建平台客流模型，并从网络平台视角刻画轨道交通网络平台的客流状态。追踪中国上海相关数据，运用普通最小二乘法、工具变量法——二阶段最小二乘法、异质性分析、稳健性检验等处理方式，对比分析直接网络外部性效应与交叉网络外部性效应，实证检验直接网络外部性与交叉网络外部性对平台上的客流影响。结果显示：增加站点数量对乘客选择轨道交通出行的意愿影响有限；上海轨道交通网络平台的客流规模超过平台自身的最佳荷载量，导致乘客数量源源不断地流失。

Research on the Influence of Network Externalities of Rail Transit Network Platform on Passenger Flow

Rail transit network is able to attract passenger flow from road network so as to help alleviating urban problems such as traffic congestion and environmental pollution. From the perspective of network platform, this paper describes the state of passenger flow on rail transit network platform by constructing platform passenger flow model with utility function. Based on traffic data tracked in Shanghai, we have conducted the comparative analysis between direct-network and cross-network externalities and studied their impacts on the passenger flow of the platform. In the study, analytical methods including ordinary least squares, instrumental variable-two-stage least squares, heterogeneity analysis and robustness test are utilized. Research results show that the increase of station number exerts limited effects on passengers’ willingness to choose rail transit, and the current scale of passenger flow carried on Shanghai rail transit network platform has exceeded the optimal load of the platform, thus leading to a continuous loss of passengers.