基于部分优势比的高速公路路产损失严重度分析

为了明晰路产损失严重程度的关联因素,以西南山区高速公路814起引起路产损失的事故数据为基础,将事故造成的路产损失按赔偿金额分为4 000元以下、4 000~10 000元、10 000元以上3个等级,从车辆类型、涉事车辆数、事故形态与原因及行车环境等方面选取了影响路产损失严重程度的潜在因素,利用部分优势比模型建立山区高速公路的路产损失严重程度分析模型,并以伪弹性系数分析各因素对路产损失的影响程度。研究结果表明:与路产损失程度相关性显著相关的共有13个因素,其中肇事车辆为中小货车、客车、轿车和季节为冬季不满足比例优势假定,其余变量均满足比例优势假定;肇事车辆为重大货车会增加发生2级和3级路产损失事故的概率,曲线半径较小的路段也呈现相同影响的关系;缓和曲线、多车事故、天气、平直路段也均会引起2级和3级路产损失事故发生概率的增加。

Severity analysis of highway production loss based on partial odds ratio

Based on the data of 814 accidents that caused road property losses on the southwest mountain expressway, to clarify the correlation factors of the road-property-loss severity, the road property losses caused by accidents are divided into three levels according to the amount of compensation: <4 000, 4 000~10 000, and >10 000 RMB. Further, potential factors affecting the severity of road property losses are selected from the aspects of vehicle type, number of vehicles involved, accident form and cause, and driving environment. An analysis model of the road-property-loss severity on mountain highways is established using partial advantage ratio model, and the degree of influence on road property loss due to various factors is analyzed via a pseudoelastic coefficient. The results show that 13 factors are considerably related to the degree of road property loss. Among these factors, the proportional advantage assumption is not met when the vehicles involved in accidents are small and medium-sized trucks, buses, and cars and the season is in winter, and the remaining factors meet the proportional advantage assumption. When the vehicle involved in an accident is a heavy truck, it increases the probability of a Level 2 and Level 3 road-property-loss accident; the same happens at the sections of the road with a small curve radius. In addition, smooth curve section, multivehicle accidents, weather, and straight sections will cause an increase in the probability of Level 2 and Level 3 road-property-loss accidents.