长江中游经济带土地利用转型风险评估

长江中游经济带土地利用转型过程可能导致的经济、社会及生态风险，将影响该区域甚至全国的可持续发展，研究其土地利用转型的风险评估方法至关重要。该文设计了基于“压力-状态-响应”框架的土地利用转型风险评价指标体系，利用基于熵权的逼近理想解排序法评价了土地利用转型的风险，应用障碍度分析法识别土地利用转型风险因子，分析了1990—2015年长江中游经济带土地利用转型的经济、社会与生态风险的分布状态与变化趋势，完成对各时期区域土地利用转型风险的风险因子识别，为提高长江中游经济带土地利用转型的影响研究效率，推进土地利用转型的风险评估工作提供技术支持。

Risk Assessment for Land Use Transition in the Middle of the Yangtze River Economic Belt

The potential economic, social and ecological risks existing in land use transitions will affect the sustainable development of the Middle of the Yangtze River Economic Belt, thus it is critical to develop a method of assessing the risks of land use transition. In this paper, firstly, a risk assessment index system was built based on pressure-state-response (PSR) model. Then entropy-TOPSIS (technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution) was adopted to assess the current risks of land use transitions. Subsequently, the critical factors of the risks were identified by means of obstacle degree analysis. Finally, the trend of economic, social and ecological risks in the Middle of the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 1990 to 2015 was assessed and analyzed, and the risk factors in each risk stage were found out. The results of the present study could promote the research progress of the risk assessment of land use transitions in the Middle of the Yangtze River Economic Belt.