用马尔可夫理论预测三峡库区的土地利用趋势

为了把握土地利用结构变化的趋势,调整社会经济发展的策略,优化土地利用的结构,实现土地的可持续利用,根据重庆市万州区1995～2001年连续清查的第一手土地利用资料,在分析土地利用现状的基础上,应用马尔可夫理论,对万州区未来几年土地利用过程进行了模拟分析和定量预测.预测结果表明耕地减少速度加快,未利用地开发不充分,交通面积增长缓慢.

Tendency Forecast of Three Gorge Land Using by Means of Markov

In order to grasp the trend of land-using structure transition, adjust social and economical development strategies, and optimize the land-using structure, the land structure in latest years is forecasted, based on the analysis of land using actually and the first-hand data of the year 1995~2001. The theory of Markov chain is used to construct the transition probability matrix. The character of land structure transition is analyzed. The result shows that the plough reduce rapidly,the land is not fully utilize and the traffic land increase slowly.