| 函件业务量的多元回归预测方法 |
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| 引用本文： | 郑惠莉,刘陈. 函件业务量的多元回归预测方法[J]. 南京邮电大学学报(自然科学版), 2000, 20(3): 66-69 |
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| 作者姓名： | 郑惠莉 刘陈 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 南京邮电学院,管理工程系,江苏南京,210003
2. 南京邮电学院,教务处,江苏南京,210003 |
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| 摘 要： | 函件业务是邮政的核心和基础业务，函件业务的预测对制定邮政企业发展规划具有十分重要的意义。首先介绍了影响函件业务量的主要因素，然后给出了建立函件业务量多元回归模型的方法，并用近年来的有关数据建立了函件业务量实际模型，对近三年的函件业务量进行了预测。
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| 关 键 词： | 函件业务量；预测；多元回归 |
| 文章编号： | 1000-1972(2000)03-0066-04 |
| 修稿时间： | 2000-02-21 |
A Multiple Regression Method for the Forecast of Letter Volume |
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| ZHENG Hui-li,LIU Chen. A Multiple Regression Method for the Forecast of Letter Volume[J]. JJournal of Nanjing University of Posts and Telecommunications, 2000, 20(3): 66-69 |
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| Authors: | ZHENG Hui-li LIU Chen |
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| Affiliation: | ZHENG Hui-li;(Department of Management Engineering, Nanjing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Nanjing, 210003, China);LIU Chen;( Department of Educational Administration, Nanjing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Nanjing, 210003, China) |
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| Abstract: | Considering that letter bussiness is the core and base postal business,forecasting the letter volume is very important for the development planning of postal enterprises.This paper first analyzes the primary factors which affect the quantity of letter bussiness.Multiple regression forecast modelling of letters volume is then proposed.Practical models are established based on the data collected in recent years and the letter volume in the latest 3 years are forecasted using these models. |
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| Keywords: | Letter volume Forecast Multiple regression |
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