| 边际电价预测中的误差分析方法研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 赵军科,李郁侠,秦美静,姚鹏,王亮,王伟.边际电价预测中的误差分析方法研究[J].西安理工大学学报,2006,22(2):187-190. |
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| 作者姓名： | 赵军科 李郁侠 秦美静 姚鹏 王亮 王伟 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 西安理工大学,水利水电学院,陕西,西安,710048
2. 西安建筑科技大学,环境与市政工程学院,陕西,西安,710055 |
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| 基金项目： | 陕西省教育厅专项科研计划项目(05JK266) |
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| 摘 要： | 针对目前电价预测中误差分析方法繁多、各方法之间可比性差的现象进行分析,总结了电价预测中常用的各种误差分析方法的优缺点,并推荐采用一种新的误差分析方法即中值相对误差来评价各种电价预测方法的精度。实际算例结果表明,该分析方法合理且有效。
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| 关 键 词： | 误差分析 中值相对误差 电价预测 |
| 文章编号： | 1006-4710(2006)02-0187-04 |
| 收稿时间： | 2005-12-16 |
| 修稿时间： | 2005年12月16 |
Research on the Method of Error Analysis in the Prediction of SMP |
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| ZHAO Jun-ke,LI Yu-xia,QIN Mei-jing,YAO Peng,WANG Liang,WANG Wei.Research on the Method of Error Analysis in the Prediction of SMP[J].Journal of Xi'an University of Technology,2006,22(2):187-190. |
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| Authors: | ZHAO Jun-ke LI Yu-xia QIN Mei-jing YAO Peng WANG Liang WANG Wei |
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| Abstract: | With an aim at the various methods of error analysis in the current electric price prediction,this paper analyzes the poor comparable phenomena among each method and summarizes the strong and weak points of error analysis methods of various kinds in the electric power price prediction.Also,a kind of new error analysis method,that is,the relative error of intermediate values is recommended and adopted to evaluate the accuracy of electric price prediction methods of various kinds.The real calculated results indicate that the analysis method is rational and effective.At the final of this article an example is given to prove the reasonable of this error analysis method. |
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| Keywords: | error analysis relative error of intermediate value price forecast of power |
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