| 我国未来15年石油供需预测与对策 |
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| 引用本文： | 孙燕,林振山,管卫华. 我国未来15年石油供需预测与对策[J]. 南京师大学报(自然科学版), 2006, 29(2): 120-123 |
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| 作者姓名： | 孙燕 林振山 管卫华 |
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| 作者单位： | 南京师范大学地理科学学院,江苏,南京,210097;南京大学城市与资源学系,江苏,南京,210093 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家高技术研究发展计划(863计划) |
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| 摘 要： | 本文在各种建设条件下构建了若干我国石油供需动力模型,在各种假设条件下对我国未来15年的石油供需量进行了数值模拟,并提出了相应的解决我国石油供需矛盾的方案.
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| 关 键 词： | 石油 模型 预测 建议 |
| 文章编号： | 1001-4616（2006）02-0120-04 |
| 收稿时间： | 2005-06-28 |
| 修稿时间： | 2005-06-28 |
Dynamic Prediction and Suggestion of Supply and Demand of Total Petroleum in China |
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| Sun Yan,Lin Zhenshan,Guan Weihua. Dynamic Prediction and Suggestion of Supply and Demand of Total Petroleum in China[J]. Journal of Nanjing Normal University(Natural Science Edition), 2006, 29(2): 120-123 |
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| Authors: | Sun Yan Lin Zhenshan Guan Weihua |
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| Affiliation: | 1. School of Geographical Science, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing 210097, China; 2. Department of Urban and Resources Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210093, China |
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| Abstract: | Along with the high -speed development of national economy, the dependence on international oil market is increasing. The balance of supply and demand of petroleum becomes a serious problem in China. Therefore, we present several recommendations and projects for solving the contradiction between supply and demand of petroleum in China correspondingly based on constructing several dynamic models of oil production and consummation, and made a prediction from 2005 to 2028. The author suggests that we should enhance the efficiency of oil utilization, use clean energy as much as possible and import petroleum by engaging in resources-oriented diplomacy, for ensureing the petroleum security in China. |
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| Keywords: | petroleum model prediction suggestion |
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