| 基于加权马尔可夫链的六安市汛期降水预测研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 李远平,赵咏梅,杨太保.基于加权马尔可夫链的六安市汛期降水预测研究[J].皖西学院学报,2009,25(2):92-95. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李远平 赵咏梅 杨太保 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 皖西学院城市建设与环境系,安徽六安,237012
2. 兰州大学资源环境学院,甘肃兰州,730000 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金委创新群体计划支持项目，安徽省高等学校青年教师科研资助计划，安徽省人文地理学重点学科资助项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 采用样本均值-标准差方法将六安市1960~2007年汛期降水量分成5级,利用加权马尔可夫链预测方法对六安市未来年份汛期降水状态进行预测并运用马尔可夫链性质得到了各降水状态发生的极限概率。结果表明,这种预测方法客观、准确、简便,是区域降水量中短期预测的科学有效的新途径。六安市汛期干旱和雨涝年份出现的概率大体相当,偏涝年份出现的概率明显大于偏旱年份,重现期短于后者。
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| 关 键 词： | 加权马尔可夫链 降水量 预测 汛期 六安市 |
Prediction of Precipitation State in Flood Season Based on Weighted Markov Chain in Ln'an City |
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| LI Yuan-ping,ZHAO Yong-mei,YANG Tai-bao.Prediction of Precipitation State in Flood Season Based on Weighted Markov Chain in Ln'an City[J].Journal of Wanxi University,2009,25(2):92-95. |
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| Authors: | LI Yuan-ping ZHAO Yong-mei YANG Tai-bao |
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| Institution: | LI Yuan-ping, ZHAO Yong-mei, YANG Tai-bao(1. Department of City Construction and Environment Science ,West Anhui University,Lu＇an 237012,China; 2. College of Resource and Environment , Lanzhou University , Lanzhou 730000,China) |
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| Abstract: | The precipitation numbers during flood season from 1960 to 2007 in Lu＇an city is classified to 5 grades based on mean and standard deviation. The weighted Markov chain is applied to predict the precipitation grade in flood season in the future years and the limited probability of precipitation state may be obtained according to the properties of Markov chain. The results show that the method named weighted Markov chain is accurate in conclusion and simple in calculation, and it provides a new way to predict the state of regional precipitation. The probabilities of drought and flood emergence are roughly equal, and the probability of sub-flood is lager than the subdrought significantly and multiyear return period is shorter than the latter. |
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| Keywords: | weighted Markov chain precipitation prediction flood season＇ Lu＇ an city |
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