1960年以来太湖水位变化特征及影响因素分析

以太湖为研究对象，综合采用Mann-Kendall突变检验和Morlet小波分析等方法，分析太湖1960—2018年水位数据，阐明太湖水文特征变化及其影响因素．结果表明:1960—2018年间太湖水位整体呈现缓慢上升趋势，极值水位波动幅度较强；年内水位受降雨分配的影响呈单峰型变化，汛期尤为明显；水位周期性显示稳定的时间尺度是9 a，变化强烈的时间尺度分别是22和28 a；气候变化和人类活动共同影响了太湖水位的变化，2000年前太湖水位对降水的响应十分敏感，而2000年后太湖水位受人为调控而趋于稳定；合理范围内的水位波动对整个流域的水资源调配和太湖的生态水文特征有重要影响，科学的水利工程调控有利于太湖湖泊生态系统的健康发展．研究结果可为太湖水情调控和湖泊生态系统管理提供理论参考和决策依据． 

Water level changes in Taihu Lake from 1960 and influencing factors

The water level data from 1960-2018 at Taihu Lake were subject to statistical analysis, Mann-Kendall mutation test and Morlet wavelet analysis, to understand dynamics of hydrology and influencing factors．The water level at Taihu Lake was found to show a slow upward trend from 1960-2018, generally but with sporadic extreme changes．Annual water level was found to show a single peak consistent with the impact of rainfall, especially during the flood season．Periodicity analysis revealed a stable 9-years time scale, 22- and 28-years time scales of strong changes．Over the 60 years period, changes in water level were found to be significantly correlated with precipitation and human activities, with strong synchronization between influencing factors．Reasonable fluctuations in water levels should influence allocation of water resources, as well as local ecology and hydrology．Appropriate water conservancy measures should benefit the healthy development of Taihu Lake ecosystem．