价值及成本不确定情况下的创业投资决策

基于创业投资的高风险和多阶段特点，综合考虑了创业投资项目价值及成本的不确定性，建立了一个新的创业投资价值评估实物期权模型，并与传统净现值法进行了对比，给出了主要参数的敏感性分析.研究表明，项目价值及成本的不确定性给予了投资项目等待的价值，此方法能够使创业投资决策更具有科学性和可靠性.

Venture Capital Investment Decision Based on Uncertainty of Benefit and Cost

On the basis of high risk and multi-stage of venture investment,accounting for the uncertainty both in the cost and benefit,a new real option model was developed.Moreover,the comparison of traditional net present value method and sensitive analysis of main parameters were given.The result shows that this model promotes the science of decision-making of venture project investment due to the waiting value introduced by uncertainty of cost and benefit.