| 基于BP神经网络的福州市人口预测模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 胡喜生,洪伟,吴承祯. 基于BP神经网络的福州市人口预测模型[J]. 杭州师范学院学报(自然科学版), 2009, 1(1): 66-69 |
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| 作者姓名： | 胡喜生 洪伟 吴承祯 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 福建农林大学交通学院,福建,福州,350002;福建农林大学城乡规划研究中心,福建,福州,350002
2. 福建农林大学城乡规划研究中心,福建,福州,350002 |
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| 基金项目： | 福建省科技项目计划，福建农林大学青年教师基金 |
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| 摘 要： | 根据福州市区1981-2004年的人口统计数据,应用BP-MSM算法,建立福州市区BP神经网络的时间序列预测模型,并与一元线性回归模型、人口自然增长模型、指数函数模型、幂函数模型、马尔萨斯人口增长模型、Logistic人口预测模型的预测结果进行比较,结果表明BP神经网络对人口数量的预测精度更高,效果更好.
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| 关 键 词： | 福州市 神经网络 人口预测模型 BP-MSM算法 |
Prediction Model of Population in Fuzhou City Based on BP Neural Network |
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| HU Xi-sheng,HONG Wei,WU Cheng-zhen. Prediction Model of Population in Fuzhou City Based on BP Neural Network[J]. Journal of Hangzhou Teachers College(Natural Science), 2009, 1(1): 66-69 |
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| Authors: | HU Xi-sheng HONG Wei WU Cheng-zhen |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Traffic College, Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University, Fuzhou 350002, China; 2. Urban and Rural Planning Research Center, Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University, Fuzhou 350002,China) |
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| Abstract: | Based on the statistics about the population from 1981 to 2004, and using BP-MSM, the paper establishes the time series model of population prediction of Fuzhou city based on BPNN, and compares with the other traditional models such as linear regression model, natural population growth model, the index model, the power model, Malthusian population growth model, and logistic population prediction model, etc. The result shows that BPNN model is more precise and effective. |
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| Keywords: | Fuzhou neural network population prediction model BP and modified simple method |
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