| 基于季节指数和灰色预测的月电量预测模型 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 刘秋华.基于季节指数和灰色预测的月电量预测模型[J].南京工程学院学报(自然科学版),2006,4(1):1-6. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 刘秋华 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 南京工程学院经济管理系,江苏,南京,210013 |
| |
| 基金项目： | 江苏省教育厅高校哲学社会科学基金 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 灰色预测模型GM（1，1）主要适合于光滑数据序列的预测，对非光滑数据序列常采用对数变换法、开n次方变换法和指数加权变换法提高数据的光滑度．由于月电量呈现明显的季节性变换，常用的提高光滑度的方法效果并不明显．文章提出了一种基于季节指数和灰色预测的月电量预测模型，以南京市某供电分公司近五年的月电量数据为基础，采用季节指数变换的灰色预测模型进行预测，与对数变换法的灰色预测模型比较，预测效果得到了明显提高．
|
| 关 键 词： | 季节指数 灰色预测 月电量 |
| 文章编号： | 1672-2558（2006）01-0001-06 |
| 收稿时间： | 2005-08-18 |
| 修稿时间： | 2005年8月18日 |
A Forecast Model of Monthly Electric Power Demand Based on Season Exponent and Grey Forecast |
| |
| LIU Qiu-hua.A Forecast Model of Monthly Electric Power Demand Based on Season Exponent and Grey Forecast[J].Journal of Nanjing Institute of Technology :Natural Science Edition,2006,4(1):1-6. |
| |
| Authors: | LIU Qiu-hua |
| |
| Abstract: | The grey forecast model GM(1,1) fits in with the forecast of smooth data.With regard to non-smooth data,it adopts the logarithm transformation,the extraction of a root and the exponent weighted to improve their smoothness.Owing to the fact that the data of monthly electric power demand change in every season,the above-mentioned methods prove to be inadequate.To solve the problem,the paper puts forward a forecast model based on season exponent and grey forecast.Take the electric power demand data from 2000 to 2004 of a branch power supply company located in Nanjing as a sample,the results of forecast by this model show that it is more valid than the previous ones. |
| |
| Keywords: | season exponent grey forecast monthly electric power demand |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
| 点击此处可从《南京工程学院学报(自然科学版)》浏览原始摘要信息 |
| 点击此处可从《南京工程学院学报(自然科学版)》下载免费的PDF全文 |
