疫情下考虑疲劳度的可变服务率排队模型

在新型冠状病毒疫情爆发期间，针对医院因医疗资源调度不合理导致的医生超疲劳状态工作、救治率下降等问题， 量化研究急诊医生疲劳度影响因子，应用熵权–模糊层次分析法计算各因子的影响权重，通过合理配置、政策缓压、科学轮休的方法，最大限度降低医生在应急诊疗中的疲劳度值。同时，根据医生的工作时间长度设置可变的服务速率，运用生灭过程模型分析患者的排队序列。最后使用ProModel仿真软件将模型进行可视化分析，设置实验组与对照组进行对比研究。仿真结果显示，考虑疲劳度排队模型的患者输出率、医生座席利用率等服务指标均优于传统模型，同时也使医生疲劳度和患者满意度达到一个动态平衡状态。

Queuing model with variable service rate considering fatigue under epidemic situation

During the outbreak of COVID-2019, the problem of excessive fatigue in doctors and the decline in treatment rate were caused by unreasonable medical resources scheduling. The influence factors of emergency doctors'' fatigue degree were studied quantitatively. The entropy weight fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (EW-FAHP) was used to calculate the influence weight of each factor. Through the methods of reasonable allocation, policy relief and scientific rotation, the fatigue degree of doctors in emergency diagnosis and treatment was minimized. At the same time, the variable service rate was set according to the length of doctors'' working time, and the birth death process model was used to analyze the queuing sequence of patients. Finally, the model was visualized by using ProModel simulation software, and the experimental group and the control group were set for comparative study. The simulation results show that the output rate of patients, the utilization rate of doctors'' seats and other service indicators of considering fatigue queuing model are better than those of the traditional model. At the same time, a dynamic balance state for doctors'' fatigue and patients'' satisfaction is reached.