导弹射击精度鉴定中Bayes方法的运用

以导弹射击精度鉴定问题为对象，研究了运用Bayes理论从仿真试验数据中提取有用信息，从而实现在少量现场试验样本情况下有效完成试验鉴定任务的方法。在简要介绍Bayes理论基本思想的基础上，着重介绍了运用自动（Bootstrap）法从仿真试验结果中获取验前信息的基本思想和一般方法。以及在获得前信息后结合现场试验样本进行导弹射击精度鉴定的方法；最后本文还指出了将Bayes方法应用于具体工程实践时必须考虑的一些问题。

Usage of Bayesian Method in Shooting Accuracy Evaluation of Missiles

This paper discusses how to make good use of the useful information gained from the results of the simulation experiments so as to accomplish the shooting accuracy evaluation of missiles in case the real experiment sample is small, by using Bayesian method. First the writers introduce chiefly the basic idea of the Bayesian theory. Then the writers put emphasis on how to get the prior information from the results of simulation experiments through the bootstrap method and how to practice the posterior test subsequently. At last the writers show several problems that have to be taken into account while applying Bayesian method to project practices.