基于条件乐观期望利润的供应链优化与协调模型

针对供应链合作中，合作伙伴的抗风险能力及风险偏好对供应链优化与协调的影响，提出了反映供应链及合作者的抗风险能力及决策者对风险偏爱程度的条件乐观期望利润的概念，并引入具有较强抗风险能力的实力型供应链优化与协调问题的研究.建立了随机需求下实力型供应链的条件乐观期望利润模型、基于条件乐观期望利润的最优订购量模型及协调供应链的最优收入共享契约模型，并对模型进行了分析，揭示了供应商和零售商的抗风险能力对供应链协调、最优订购量、最优批发价格及供应链合作的稳定性的影响.

Supply Chain Optimization and Coordination Model Based on Conditional Optimistic Expected Profit

In view of the effects of anti-risk ability of cooperative enterprises and decision makers' risk preferences on supply chain optimization and coordination, a concept named conditional optimistic expected profit was proposed and a power supply chain optimization and coordination mechanism with comparatively strong anti-risk abilities was introduced for further studies. First, under random demands, the conditional optimistic expected profit model of power supply chain and the optimal ordering quantity model as well as the revenue-sharing contract model based on conditional optimistic expected profit were constructed. Then, the models were analyzed with an aim to revealing the impact of suppliers' and retailers' anti-risk capability on supply chain coordination, the optimal ordering quantity and wholesale price, and the stability of supply chain cooperation.