分散型可再生能源技术扩散中的收入效应研究

阻碍分散型可再生能源技术扩散的重要因素是其较高的采用成本，而随着居民收入水平的逐步增加，对这种新能 源技术的采用行为也越来越普遍.基于元胞自动机技术，考虑到绝对收入水平和相对收入水平对居民采用行为的影响 机制，将元胞划分为潜在者、等待者和采用者三种状态并定义了相互间的转化概率，建立了收入影响下的分散型可再 生能源技术扩散模型.通过与太阳能热水器扩散数据的对比证明了模型的合理性，仿真分析表明，相对收入系数与等待元 胞转化概率成反比，与采用元胞转化概率成正比，潜在者相对收入系数变动的边际贡献小于等待者；此外，研究还发 现采用示范效应和收入敏感度是在特定收入范围内而非收入最大值区域是最优的，初始采用元胞收入水平高低对 扩散进程没有显著的促进作用.这些结论对可再生能源技术推广和企业市场营销决策都有着积极的借鉴意义.

Income effect of decentralized renewable energy technology diffusion

An obstacle to the widespread adoption of decentralized renewable energy technology such as mini-type wind generator or solar water heater is their high upfront cost. Contrary to the traditional methods, such as learning curves, this paper studied from the view of income effect which was further divided into absolute income effect and relative income effect. Based on cellular automata technology, we categorized three states of cells as potential cells, waiting cells and adopted cells and then defined their mutual transformation probability to develop a model of decentralized renewable energy. Using the diffusion data of solar water heater in China, we compared the simulation results with regression ones by Bass model in fitness and accuracy, and verified the rationality of our cellular automata model. With the help of Logit model, we find that the coefficient of income effect is in converse proportion to the transformation probability from potential cells to waiting cells, but in inverse proportion to the one from waiting cells to adopted cells, which reveals the diffusion path of solar water heater in China. Furthermore, this paper also finds that the bandwagon effect is mostly obvious in certain income interval rather than in the maximum area, and initial income level of adopted cells has no significant effect on the diffusion process. These findings shed some light on the management decision about market segmentation and development.