基于组合赋权和耦合-协同理论的油气管道泥石流灾害危险性评价研究

管道地质灾害危险性评价是管道安全运营、灾害防治的重要决策依据。目前的评价方法中,并未充分考虑灾害与管体间的互馈关系。为此,根据系统的耦合-协同理论及组合赋权思想,建立危险性评价的耦合-协同模型,对某长输天然气管道沿线发育的4处典型单沟泥石流灾害进行危险性评价,并与常规的指标评分法进行对比、验证,最终的评价结果与实际调查情况相吻合。研究结果表明:耦合-协同理论在管道泥石流灾害危险性评价中具有适用性和可推广性,可为今后管道地质灾害的相关定量化评价提供新思路。

Oil and Gas Pipelines and Debris Flow Disaster Hazard Assessment that Based on Combination Weighting and Coupling-coordination Theory

Pipeline geological hazard assessment is an important decision basis of sound operation of the pipeline and disaster prevention and control.While the current assessment methods have not give full con-sideration of the mutual feedback relationship between disaster and pipe body.Therefore,according to the coupling-coordination theory and combination weighting of the system to establish a coupling-coordination model of hazard assessment.Then it makes hazard assessment on the four typical monocolpate debris flow disaster that developed along the long-distance gas pipeline,and make comparison and verification with the conventional index evaluation method,and the final assessment result is consistent with the actual survey situation.This shows the applicability and replicability of coupling-coordination theory in the pipeline debris flow hazard evaluation,providing new ideas for relevant quantitative evaluation of geological disasters of pipelines.