鄱阳湖生态经济区耕地的时空变化

基于传统数理统计方法基础上构建集约度模型,并在ArcGis和GeoDa软件支持下,以人均耕地面积和人均粮食产量为测度指标,从时间、空间、集约度及相关性等4个方面对鄱阳湖生态经济区1952、1997、2008、2010年人均耕地进行深入探析.结果表明:自1952年以来鄱阳湖生态经济区耕地面积呈波动下降趋势,各县域相对发展率在不同时期差异较大,区内耕地利用集聚趋势逐步减弱; 区域人均耕地水平呈现出显著的阶段性特征,各水平区逐步呈块状分布,耕地重心迁移显示1952—1997年表现为耕地南北差异,而1997—2010年则表现为东西差异; 受政策、自然灾害、经济发展水平影响,各县域耕地集约利用差异明显,其空间分布与耕地重心迁移呈正相关性; 关联分析显示鄱阳湖生态经济区在经历“围湖造田”、“退田还湖”、“人地和谐”等阶段后,耕地集约利用水平得到显著提高,粗放型县域持续减少,并呈现出区域集聚状况; 正相关性县域由区域的西南部集聚向区域西南、中部及东北部呈“N”字型分布.

The Spatial-Temporal Changes of Cultivated Land in Poyang Lake Eco-Economic Region

On the support of ArcGIS and GeoDa software,utilizing the traditional method of mathematical statistics and ESDA method,using the measure index of farmland areas per person and per capita of grain to analyze Ecological Economic Region of Poyang Lake from the four aspects including time,space,intensive degree and the correlation in 1952,1997,2008,2010.The results show that:the Ecological Economic Region of Poyang Lake's cultivated land area showed a trend of falling volatility since 1952.Each county relative development rate were varied in different periods,cultivated land use of agglomeration trend to weakened.The level of farmland areas per person presented significant stage characteristics,distribution of each level area gradually to block.The migration of cultivated land gravity center in Region displayed of north-south differences in 1952-1997,while it showed the east-west differences in 1997-2010.Based on the policy,natural disasters,economic development level,the difference to be markedly on aspect of county cultivated land intensive utilization.Between its spatial distribution and cultivated land gravity center migration were positively associated.Correlation Analysis showed that the cultivated land intensive utilization level increased significantly and extensive use of counties continue to decline as well as presents the regional agglomeration conditions after the Ecological Economic Region of Poyang Lake experienced “reclaiming farmland from lakes ”、“returning farmland to lake”、“harmony between human beings and nature” phases.Positive correlation of county had presented the agglomeration state toward to southwest,which was instead by the type of “N” distribution consists of southwest、central and northeast.