苏北南部淤泥质岸滩稳定性分析

选择年平均高潮位、年平均含沙量、潮滩宽度、潮滩平均坡度、潮滩滩高、年淤高率、年淤进率作为7个指标因子，利用主成分分析方法分析苏北南部岸滩的冲淤变化状况，并划分该岸段的岸滩稳定状态。结果表明，控制苏北南部淤泥质海岸稳定状态的主要因子是泥沙含量、潮滩宽度及其潮滩的年淤进量，潮滩坡度是次一级的指标。苏北南部淤泥质海岸可分为稳定淤涨型、侵蚀不稳定型和基本稳定型三种状态。

Stability Analysis on the Muddy Coast in the South of Northern Jiangsu

The mean annual high tide level, the mean annual sandiness contents, the width of tidal flat, the mean gradient of tidal flat ,the elevation of tidal flat, the annual silty heightening rate ,and the annual silty gainning rate were choosed. Using the principal component analysis method, this paper studies coastal washing and silting changes situation in the South of Northern Jiangsu,and segments coastal stability. The result shows that the main control factor of the stability of costal region are the suspended sediment concentration, the width of tidal flat, and the annual silty gaining. The mean gradient of tidal flat is the minor factor. The muddy coast in the South of Northern Jiangsu is classified into stable deposition,unstable erosion,and fundamental stability.