大型项目融资风险动态管理方法

首先给出了针对破产风险、收益风险以及资本结构风险的大型项目风险管理方法体系——融资风险指标监控法、NPV和PaR指标监控法以及B指标监控法。其次,在项目随机变量的预测方面,引入一个有偏的损失函数来解决同样的预测失误量,即预测错误给投资者带来的损害绝对值要大于预测正确给投资者带来的收益绝对值这一问题。最后,用一个水厂案例进行了实例研究。

The Dynamic Management Methods of Financing Risk for Large-scale Project

First, for controlling large-scale project's bankruptcy risk, income risk and financing structure risk, this paper gives financing risk index control method, NPV and PaR index control method, B index control method. Second, for solving the same error quantity which will bring different effect degree to investors, that is, the extra damage value is bigger than extra income value, this paper adopts an asymmetrical loss function on forecasting the distribution of interest rate, exchange rate and inflation rate. Finally, this paper studies a water plant case.