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近50a来南疆气候变化对可利用降水量的影响
引用本文:葛朝霞,曹丽青,薛梅,宋颖玲,曹琨. 近50a来南疆气候变化对可利用降水量的影响[J]. 河海大学学报(自然科学版), 2010, 38(1): 6-9. DOI: 10.3876/j.issn.1000-1980.2010.01.002
作者姓名:葛朝霞  曹丽青  薛梅  宋颖玲  曹琨
作者单位:河海大学水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室,江苏,南京,210098;河海大学水文水资源学院,江苏,南京,210098
基金项目:国家自然科学基金,公益性行业(气象)科研专项 
摘    要:选择1951~2006年逐月降水和温度资料,计算出南疆年平均蒸发量及可利用降水量.在详细分析了50 a来南疆地区降水、气温、蒸发及可利用降水量变化特征的基础上,采用逐步回归周期分析法对降水、气温和可利用降水量进行了模拟,并对未来5 a上述要素进行了预测.结果表明,20世纪70年代以后南疆地区的温度、降水和蒸发变化基本呈上升态势,可利用降水量却呈现出偏多和偏少交替的波状变化特征.这说明气候变暖,可利用降水量不一定增多,未来5 a南疆地区可利用降水量将可能减少.

关 键 词:南疆  气候变化  可利用降水量变化  逐步回归
修稿时间:2010-03-01

Influence of climate change in Southern Xinjiang over last 50 years on available precipitation
GE Zhao-xia,CAO Li-qing,XUE Mei,SONG Ying-ling,CAO Kun. Influence of climate change in Southern Xinjiang over last 50 years on available precipitation[J]. Journal of Hohai University (Natural Sciences ), 2010, 38(1): 6-9. DOI: 10.3876/j.issn.1000-1980.2010.01.002
Authors:GE Zhao-xia  CAO Li-qing  XUE Mei  SONG Ying-ling  CAO Kun
Abstract:Based on the monthly precipitation and temperature data from 1951 to 2006, the annual mean evaporation and the available precipitation in Southern Xinjiang were calculated. By analyzing the characteristics of changes in precipitation, temperature, evaporation and available precipitation over the last 50 years, the precipitation, temperature and available precipitation were simulated using the periodic analysis of stepwise regression. Then, they were predicted for the coming five years. The results show that the changes in temperature, precipitation and evaporation have basically had an increasing tendency since the 1970s. However, the available precipitation has exhibited fluctuating characteristics, that is, relatively larger and smaller amounts than the average ones at different time. With climate change, the available precipitation does not necessarily increase, and it may decrease in Southern Xinjiang in the coming five years.
Keywords:Southern Xinjiang  climate change  change in available precipitation  stepwise regression
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