中国锂元素动态物质流及关键驱动因素分析

 构建了基于全生命周期的中国锂元素物质流分析框架,核算并分析了新能源汽车驱动下的中国2000—2020年锂元素的流量、存量和供需格局的演变情况。研究显示：（1）在流量视角下,2000—2020年间,锂供给以锂矿石供应为主,一次资源（34.9万t）的使用量增幅较大,二次资源（0.8万t）的供应较小;各类锂产品的加工和使用量从传统锂工业产品和3C产品（手机、平板、笔记本电脑）驱动向新能源汽车驱动转变。（2）在存量视角下,锂产品在用存量都有不同程度的增长,其中动力电池产品的增速位列首位（20年间增长7.2万t）,回收潜力较大（目前不足5%）。（3）在供需格局视角下,中国的锂矿石对外依存度较高（75%以上）,并将持续保持高位,中国主要从南美发展中国家进口工业级碳酸锂,然后向日本、韩国、美国等发达国家出口电池级氢氧化锂。

Dynamic material flow and key driving factors of lithium in China

To clarify the strategic significance of the flow, stock, and supply and demand patterns of lithium metal in new energy vehicle batteries and to guarantee the national energy transition and development of new energy vehicles, a Chinese lithium material flow analysis framework based on whole life cycle is constructed. The evolution of flow, stock, and supply and demand patterns of lithium elements driven by new energy vehicles in China from 2000 to 2020 is analyzed. The conclusions are as follows. Firstly, from the perspective of flow rate, lithium supply was dominated by lithium ore supply from 2000 to 2020;.the usage of the primary resources (349000 t) had a large increase while the supply of secondary resources (8000 t) was small; the driving force for the processing and usage of all kinds of lithium products changed from traditional lithium industrial products and 3C products (mobile phones, tablets, and laptops) to new energy vehicles. Secondly, from the perspective of stock, the stock of lithium products in use increased differently, among which the growth rate of power battery products ranked the first (an increase of 72000 t in 20 years), and the recycling potential was relatively large (less than 5% at present). Thirdly, from the perspective of the supply and demand pattern, the external dependence of lithium ore in China was relatively high (above 75%) and would remain high; China mainly imported industrial-grade lithium carbonate from developing countries in South America, and exported battery-grade lithium hydroxide to developed countries such as Japan, South Korea, and the United States.