雄安新区未来人口结构及促进其高质量发展的建议

 基于第六次人口普查和历年《保定经济统计年鉴》数据，采用人口-发展-环境模型，依据上海浦东新区和深圳经济特区的迁移人口特点设定雄安新区政策导向人口迁移方案，对比分析了延续历史迁移趋势的自然迁移和政策导向迁移两种方式下2020—2035年雄安新区分年龄、性别和教育水平的人口结构变化特征。结论如下：（1）目前雄安新区人口已呈现老龄化态势，自然迁移方式下，老龄化程度不断加剧；政策导向迁移方式下，未来老龄化有所缓解，劳动力人口抚养压力减轻，但出现少子化现象；（2）两种迁移方式总性别比均呈下降趋势，性别结构有所改善，但仍存在性别比偏高现象；（3）自然迁移方式下，平均受教育年限由2020年的9年升至2035年的10年左右，中学教育水平仍占主导地位；政策导向迁移方式下，平均受教育年限由9年升至13.5年，人口教育结构由中学教育水平占主导地位转为大学及以上教育水平占主导地位；（4）建议应完善养老保险制度，优化生育政策，增加劳动力人口财产性收入；加强法律法规建设，宣传男女平等观念；完善基础设施建设，培养创新型人才。

The projected population structure and suggestions for high-quality development in the Xiong'an New Area

Projection of population structure in the Xiong'an New Area is great significant for the regional high-quality development. Based on the sixth population census and the Baoding Economic Statistical Yearbooks, the populationdevelopment-environment model is used to project population structure from 2020 to 2035 in the Xiong'an New Area. The policy-oriented population migration plan of the Xiong'an New Area is set by referring to the migration population patterns of the Shanghai Pudong New Area and the Shenzhen Special Economic Zone. The characteristics of the population structure by age, gender and education level were compared between the policy-oriented migration plans and natural migration plan following its historical trend. The research conclusions are as follows:(1) Aging trend of the population has appeared in the Xiong'an New Area. At period 2020-2035, the degree of aging will increase under the natural migration mode. In contrast, aging trend will be alleviated under the policy-oriented migration mode in which the pressure on the labor force might be reduced but the birthrate might be in a low status. (2) The total gender ratio is projected to show a downward trend under both migration modes. Although the gender structure might be improved, the gender ratio will still be slightly higher. (3) Under the natural migration mode, the average length of education will rise from 9 years in 2020 to about 10 years in 2035, which means secondary education will still dominate the population educational structure. Under the policy-oriented migration mode, the average length of education will increase from 9 years to 13.5 years, and the dominant educational level will shift from secondary education to university education. (4) To promote high-quality development in the Xiong'an New Area, some major socio-economic aspects need to be improved including optimization of the pension insurance system and the fertility policy, increasing in the property income of the labor force, strengthening the laws and regulations construction to enhance the awareness of the gender equality, and improvement of infrastructure construction and fostering of innovative talents.