中国海洋深水油气工程技术与装备创新需求预见及风险分析

 着眼于中国南海油气工程技术与装备创新发展问题，通过专家咨询调研，梳理了深水油气工程技术与装备发展现状，并将其分成深水油气勘探技术与装备、深水油气田高效开发工程模式、深水钻完井关键技术与装备、深水油气生产与输送关键技术与装备4个领域，构建了相应的4级层次评价模型，运用德尔菲法和权值因子判断法对深水油气工程技术与装备进行了量化分析和重要性排序，并对相应的关键装备系统进行了风险分析。研究结果表明，在深水油气工程中比较重要的技术与装备内容包括：深水油气勘探技术、油气田开发先进井型技术、浮式钻井平台/钻井船总体结构设计制造技术、深水钻井隔水管安装与作业控制技术、水下井口系统设计制造技术及其安全高效安装技术、深水钻完井安全高效作业技术、浮式生产平台总体结构设计制造技术、水下采油树系统设计制造技术及其安全控制技术以及电液复合式控制系统设计制造技术等；深水油气工程装备组成复杂，海洋环境和作业工况恶劣，导致泥浆循环、深水钻井隔水管、水下井口与采油树、油气处理、水下管汇及水下生产控制等系统出现失效的风险较高，可通过优化设计控制降低装备失效概率。

Innovation demand foresight and risk analysis of technologies and equipment for deepwater oil & gas engineering in China

Key demand and risk analysis of deepwater oil and gas engineering technology and equipment in the South China Sea can help construct our country's deepwater oil and gas engineering independent innovation system. Through reviewing the current status of deepwater oil and gas engineering technology and equipment, this paper divides the technologies into four major fields: exploration, modes, drilling and completion, and production and transportation, and presents a four-level hierarchical evaluation model for deepwater oil and gas engineering. By means of Delphi expert investigation method and the weight factor judgment method. the technologies and equipment are quantitatively analyzed and their importances are ranked, and a risk analysis of the key equipment system is given. The results show that deepwater oil and gas exploration technology, advanced well type technology for efficient oil and gas development, semi-submersible drilling platform/drillship structure design and manufacturing technology, and so on are relatively important, and that the complex composition of deepwater oil and gas engineering equipment system and the harsh operating environment may lead to the high risk of drilling mud circulation system, riser system, subsea wellhead and X-tree system, etc. So it is necessary to control and reduce the probability of equipment failure through optimized design to ensure a safe and efficient development of deepwater oil and gas.