我国东西部GDP差异的数学模型分析

用线性神经网络模型进行分析和预测,发现东西部地区在上世纪八十年代中期以前,其GDP差距并不大,但在上世纪八十年代末开始,其GDP差距逐渐加大,特别是在上世纪九十年代,从1991—2000年的十年间,东部GDP增长速度都远高于西部地区;另一方面,自从2000年以后,从西部大开发和重庆直辖以来,特别是2004、2005、2006这3 a间,西部地区无论是人均GDP或总量GDP增长速度都反超东部地区,显示出西部大开发和重庆直辖为缩小东西部经济差异带来的绩效和由此带来的西部腾飞契机;通过神经网络数学建模预测分析得出目前我国东西部经济差异正处于双S曲线模型的中部时期;因此要抓住这一难得的历史契机,缩小差距,充分利用后来居上的发展规律,加快西部地区的发展。

Analysis of GDP Difference between East and West Part of China by Mathematical Model

Analysis and forecast through linear neural network model find that GDP gap is not large before the middle of the 1980s between east and west part of China but since the late 1980s the GDP gap becomes larger and larger between them,especially in the 1990s,from 1991 to 2000,the GDPgrowth rate of the east part is very higher than that of east part,which shows the performance of western development and Chongqing becoming municipality,especially in 2004,2005 and 2006,the growth rate of either per capita GDP or total GDP in west part surpasses that of east part,which shows the performance of western develoopment and Chongqing becoming municipality in narrowing the gap between east and west part of China and which reveals the opportunity in the rapid economic development of the west part.The analysis and forecast through neural network mathematical modeling indicate that present economic difference between east and west part of China stays at the middle period of double S curve model,thus,we must take this historic opportunity to narrow the gap,make full use of the development law that successors excel predecessors to accelerate the economic development of the west part of China.