基于双重差分模型的北极地区碳减排效应及其政策作用分析

北极变暖速度是全球平均水平的两倍多，在北极和全世界引起广泛影响.聚焦全球变暖和碳排放问题，北极地区推出相应气候与环境治理框架政策.该文围绕政策框架对北极碳减排作用开展研究，选取2011—2018年北极理事会成员国及非成员国国家的面板数据，运用双重差分模型，分析了北极理事会20周年联合声明政策框架对北极地区碳减排效应的影响.模型分析结果显示，该政策框架的发布对碳减排有显著的推动作用.同时，结合分析结果和北极地区环境保护与气候变化治理模式，提出推动北极地区碳减排的治理方案与对策建议.

Analysis of carbon emission reduction effect and policy effect in Arctic region based on double difference model

The Arctic is warming more than twice as fast as the global average， causing widespread impact in the Arctic and around the world. Focusing on global warming and carbon emissions， the Arctic region has launched policy framework of corresponding climate and environmental governance. This paper focuses on the effect of policy framework on carbon emission reduction in the Arctic. Based on the panel data of Arctic Council members and non-member countries from 2011 to 2018， difference-in-differences model is utilized to analyze the impact of the policy framework of the 20th Anniversary Declaration of the Arctic Council on carbon emission reduction in the Arctic. The results of the model analysis show that the release of the policy framework has significantly reduced carbon emission. At the same time， combined with the analysis results and the governance mode of environmental protection and climate change in the Arctic region， management scheme and countermeasures are put forward to promote carbon emission reduction in the Arctic region.