中国与北极国家贸易格局时空演变及其影响因素分析

随着北极地区的潜在经济价值日益凸显，“冰上丝绸之路”的开发利用对中国与北极国家贸易格局具有重要影响.该文在分析中国与北极国家贸易格局时空演变的基础上，运用扩展贸易引力模型探究贸易格局的影响因素.结果显示：1)从时间演变特征上看，中国与北极国家的贸易规模不断扩大，贸易差额整体呈顺差状态；中国对北极国家出口商品类别以杂项制品和按原料分类的制成品为主，进口商品类别以杂项制品和非食用原料(燃料除外)为主；中国对北极国家的贸易依存度大于北极国家对中国的贸易依存度.2)从空间演变特征上看，中国与北极国家的贸易空间格局趋于分散，国别分布以美国为主，其次是俄罗斯和加拿大.3)从影响因素上看，中国与北极国家的贸易格局受中国和北极国家GDP、地理距离、贸易依存度、经济制度相似性以及文化距离因素的共同影响.

Spatiotemporal evolution and influencing factors of trade pattern between China and Arctic countries

As the potential economic value of the Arctic region becomes increasingly prominent， the development and utilization of the “Polar Silk Road” has an important impact on the trade pattern between China and Arctic countries. Based on the analysis of the temporal and spatial evolution of the trade pattern between China and Arctic countries， the extended trade gravity model was utilized to analyze the influencing factors of the trade pattern in this paper. The results are shown as follows. 1) From the perspective of time evolution characteristics， the trade value between China and Arctic countries continues to expand， and the overall trade balance is in surplus. China's exports to the Arctic countries are mainly miscellaneous manufactured articles and manufactured goods classified chiefly by materials. The categories of imported commodities are mainly miscellaneous manufactured articles and inedible crude materials (except fuel). China's trade dependence on Arctic countries is greater than that of Arctic countries on China. 2) From the perspective of spatial evolution characteristics， the spatial pattern of trade between China and Arctic countries tends to be scattered， and the country distribution is dominated by the United States， followed by Russia and Canada. 3) From the perspective of influencing factors， the trade pattern between China and Arctic countries is jointly influenced by the GDP， geographic distance， trade dependence， similarity of economic systems， and cultural distance between China and Arctic countries.