基于系统动力学的区域水环境动态承载力研究

水环境承载力是协调区域经济-社会-环境可持续发展的重要依据,城市是人口最集中、经济活动最频繁的地区,影响城市水环境承载力的因素复杂多变。以西北地区城市宝鸡市为例,将水环境承载力系统分解为水资源、水污染、工业、农业和人口5个子系统,运用系统动力学方法与向量模法相结合,建立了区域水环境承载力的系统动力学仿真模型。通过多个方案仿真,比较优选出适合宝鸡市发展的最佳方案,为地区可持续发展提供决策依据。

Dynamic Carrying Capacity of Regional Water Environment Based on System Dynamics

Water environment carrying capacity is important basis for coordinating the regional economy-society-environment sustainable development.City is a heacily-populated area with the frequent economic activities,so that the factors affecting city water environment carrying capacity is complex and changeable.Taking Baoji City in the Northwest region for example,the urban water environment carrying capacity system is divided into five sub-systems,including water resources,water pollution,industry,agriculture and population.System dynamic and the method of vector mold are combined to establish a system dynamics model to simulate the regional water environment carrying capacity.By simulating several schemes,the corresponding WECC is worked out respectively and the optimum scheme is provided,whereby providing a strategic decision basis for regional sustainable development.