利用CLUE-S模型对四川省未来10年土地利用变化的预测与分析

土地利用配置对生态环境和经济发展有着重要影响，通过研究土地利用配置对人类可持续发展具有重要意义。以我国四川省为研究区，设定了生态效益型、经济效益型和综合效益型3种发展情景，通过CLUE-S模型模拟研究区2030年的土地利用数据，计算了各情景下相应的生态服务价值量和经济效益，分析了3种情景下模拟结果各土地利用类型分布的相同和差异。研究结果表明，生态服务价值量在情景1下达到最大值，为108 405.5亿元；经济效益则在情景2下最大，为78 346.3亿元。从土地利用空间分布上来看，3种情景的变化趋势基本一致:生态用地中林地和水域的增加主要分布在攀西地区;建设用地的增加主要分布在攀西地区和四川盆地。研究结果可对四川省未来的土地规划管理提供参考。

Prediction and analysis of land use change in Sichuan Province in the next 10 years based on CLUE-S model

Land use allocation impacts the ecological environment and economic development, also influencing the sustainable development. In this paper, the CLUE-S model was used to simulate land use change from 2015 to 2030. Taking Sichuan province (China) as a pilot, three scenarios of ecological efficiency, economic efficiency, and comprehensive benefit were developed. Under these three scenarios, the ecosystem service value and economic benefit were calculated. The similarity and difference of land use distribution were also analyzed. The results show that scenario 1 achieves the maximum ecosystem service value, scenario 2 accomplishes the maximum economic benefit, as well as scenario 3 presents the consideration to both ecological and economic aspects. Spatially, the increase of ecological land-use types, specifically, forest land and water body, often occur in the Panxi region. The increase of construction land is ubiquitous in the Panxi region and Sichuan Basin. These results serve as a scientific reference for land planning and management in Sichuan.