马尔科夫方法修正的灰色模型在我国农村居民人均旅游消费预测中的应用

随着农村经济的发展,日益富裕起来的农村居民已成为国内旅游的一支旅游大军,加强对我国农村居民人均旅游消费的研究,对促进旅游业的发展及促进经济增长具有重要的意义.采用灰色GM(1,1)预测模型对1998年至2009年的消费值进行拟合,并动态模拟2009年我国农村居民人均旅游消费变化态势,再运用马尔科夫状态转移矩阵对灰色GM...

Grey Model Amended by Markov Method in Average Tourism Consumption of Chinese Rural Residents

With the development of rural economy,increasingly affluent rural residents has became a great force of domestic tourism,so it is very significant to strengthen the study on our country′s rural average tourism consumption in promoting the development of tourism and economic growth.This thesis adopts GM（1,1） to fit the consumer value from 1998 to 2009,and dynamically simulates the changing trend of our country′s rural average tourism consumption in 2009,then uses the Markov state transition Matrix to amend the simulation results of GM（1,1） and produces the correction value during 1998 to 2009.Comparing the correction value with the relative error before amendment,it shows that GM（1,1） amended by Markov method is effective and practical in predicting rural average tourism consumption.