2012 年我国对外贸易形势的变动与走向

2011年下半年以来，在内需、外需均持续低迷等不利因素的影响下，我国进出口增速持续放缓、2012年前8个月，我国进出口增速大幅下滑，国有企业和集体企业的进出口出现负增长，对欧盟、日本的双边贸易额负增长、长期来看，人口红利、制度红利逐渐衰竭；产业转移、贸易摩擦、经济结构调整等因素共同作用使得2012年成为我国对外贸易的一个转折点，我国进出口增速将从高速增长阶段转变进行相对低速增长的阶段短期内，我国贸易面临外需和内需双重乏力的压力，我国进出口增速下滑势头仍将持续、预计2012年进出口增速在64％左右，出口增速7．3％左右，进口额增速在5．5％左右．

Changes and Trend of China＇s Foreign Trade in 2012

From the second half of 2011, the growth rate of China＇s foreign trade has been going down, under the pres- sure of slack international and domestic demands. For the first eight month in 2012, the growth rate of China＇s foreign trade declines sharply, the exports and imports of SOEs, and collective enterprises are negative growth, and the bilateral trades between Sino-European Union and Sino-Japan are negative growth. From a relative long view, exhaustion of population profit and regime profit, production retrenchment, trade friction and economic re-structure work together to make 2012 be- come a turning point. China＇s foreign trade comes into a relatively low speed stage compared with the high speed period in last decade. In a short period, the trend of speed-reduction will continue under the pressure of slack international demand and domestic demand. We predict that the growth rate of 2012＇s foreign trade is about 6.4%, and exports grow about 7.3 %, imports grow about 5.5%.